{"id":11703,"date":"2022-12-08T19:48:38","date_gmt":"2022-12-08T18:48:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/east-sea.de\/?p=11703"},"modified":"2022-12-10T22:46:45","modified_gmt":"2022-12-10T21:46:45","slug":"tieng-viet-du-bao-nguon-cung-nang-luong-tinh-linh-hoat-va-luu-tru-dien-toan-cau-vao-nam-2050","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/east-sea.de\/vi\/2022\/12\/08\/tieng-viet-du-bao-nguon-cung-nang-luong-tinh-linh-hoat-va-luu-tru-dien-toan-cau-vao-nam-2050\/","title":{"rendered":"D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o ngu\u1ed3n cung n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, t\u00ednh linh ho\u1ea1t v\u00e0 l\u01b0u tr\u1eef \u0111i\u1ec7n to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2050"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u0110\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2050, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u01a1 c\u1ea5p c\u1ee7a nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u h\u00f3a th\u1ea1ch s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi 50% so v\u1edbi 80% th\u1ecb ph\u1ea7n hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u00e0 do qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh \u0111i\u1ec7n kh\u00ed h\u00f3a nhanh ch\u00f3ng, kh\u1eed cacbon, t\u0103ng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n \u0111i\u1ec7n gi\u00f3, m\u1eb7t tr\u1eddi ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd v\u1edbi chi ph\u00ed gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u h\u00f3a th\u1ea1ch gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u h\u00f3a th\u1ea1ch trong cung c\u1ea5p n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u01a1 c\u1ea5p c\u1ee7a th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb 80% hi\u1ec7n nay xu\u1ed1ng ch\u1ec9 d\u01b0\u1edbi 50% v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2050.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Than ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ec9nh 8 Gt (t\u1ef7 t\u1ea5n) m\u1ed7i n\u0103m v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2014. K\u1ec3 t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3, t\u1ed5ng nhu c\u1ea7u v\u1ec1 than \u0111\u00e3 v\u00e0 s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m. Trong \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch Covid-19 nhu c\u1ea7u than gi\u1ea3m 7% v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2020. Nhu c\u1ea7u s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ec9nh tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3, thay v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng than s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m g\u1ea7n 2\/3 so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2050.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nhu c\u1ea7u d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf n\u0103m 2020 l\u00e0 75 tri\u1ec7u th\u00f9ng m\u1ed7i ng\u00e0y (Mb\/d [1]<\/strong>) kh\u00f4ng bao g\u1ed3m kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean h\u00f3a l\u1ecfng v\u00e0 nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u sinh h\u1ecdc. D\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n m\u1ee9c ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf cao nh\u1ea5t v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2025 v\u1edbi 86 Mb\/ng\u00e0y, cao h\u01a1n 15% so v\u1edbi hi\u1ec7n nay, tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi \u0111i v\u00e0o m\u1ee9c suy gi\u1ea3m \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh trong d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nhu c\u1ea7u d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m ch\u1eadm t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2025 \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2035, sau \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ef1 suy gi\u1ea3m tr\u1edf n\u00ean t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1ea1nh, trung b\u00ecnh gi\u1ea3m 2,4% m\u1ed7i n\u0103m trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2035 – 2050.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u0103m 2050, nhu c\u1ea7u d\u1ea7u to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn \u200b\u200bl\u00e0 56 Mb\/d (115 EJ). Nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, s\u1ebd l\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m 32% so v\u1edbi hi\u1ec7n nay. S\u1ef1 s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m n\u00e0y ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u1ea3m nhu c\u1ea7u trong l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c v\u1eadn t\u1ea3i, gi\u1ea3m 45% trong 28 n\u0103m t\u1edbi. S\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t s\u1ebd t\u1eadp trung m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n bao gi\u1edd h\u1ebft \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng v\u00e0 B\u1eafc Phi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cung c\u1ea5p kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ec9nh v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2036 v\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m d\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ebfn th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n 10% so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c hi\u1ec7n nay. Ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t s\u1ebd v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua d\u1ea7u v\u00e0 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh ngu\u1ed3n n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u01a1 c\u1ea5p l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 2040.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t c\u00f3 s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh duy tr\u00ec nh\u1edd s\u1ef1 \u0111a d\u1ea1ng c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng n\u00f3: M\u1ed9t n\u1eeda trong s\u1ed1 nhu c\u1ea7u v\u1ec1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t l\u00e0 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng trong s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t, v\u1eadn t\u1ea3i, c\u00e1c t\u00f2a nh\u00e0 v\u00e0 n\u1eeda c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i th\u00f4ng qua chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i cho c\u00e1c m\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng kh\u00e1c (nh\u01b0 \u0111i\u1ec7n, h\u00f3a d\u1ea7u, s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t hydro).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nhu c\u1ea7u kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t s\u1ebd thay \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c: Gi\u1ea3m trong c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia OECD; \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n \u1edf Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ea1i l\u1ee5c v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ec9nh \u1edf \u0111\u00f3 v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ea7u nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 2030 v\u00e0 t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p ba l\u1ea7n \u1edf Ti\u1ec3u l\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ecba \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2050.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u00e0o gi\u1eefa th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 n\u00e0y, ch\u1ec9 12% kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 carbon, trong s\u1ed1 \u0111\u00f3 hydro s\u1ebd chi\u1ebfm kho\u1ea3ng m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n t\u01b0, v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1o n\u00ean th\u00f4ng qua c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 thu gi\u1eef v\u00e0 l\u01b0u tr\u1eef carbon (CCS) trong \u0111i\u1ec7n l\u1ef1c v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p, v\u00e0 b\u1eb1ng kh\u00ed metan sinh h\u1ecdc (biomethane).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trong m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u00f3a nhu c\u1ea7u kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t v\u1eabn gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1eb1ng, gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t cao ng\u00e0y nay v\u1eabn t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2024 tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi d\u1ea7n tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i m\u1ee9c n\u0103m 2021. Ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh ki\u1ec3m tra ch\u1ea1y v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t cao k\u00e9o d\u00e0i trong 6 v\u00e0 12 n\u0103m cho th\u1ea5y \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ebd l\u00e0m suy tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o tr\u00ean to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u00e0 \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u – n\u01a1i m\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng n\u00f3 s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda trong v\u00f2ng m\u1ed9t th\u1eadp k\u1ef7.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u0103ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u00e1i t\u1ea1o:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Than v\u00e0 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t l\u1ea7n l\u01b0\u1ee3t gi\u1ea3m t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng 4% v\u00e0 8% trong s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u0111i\u1ec7n v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2050, khi ch\u00fang h\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 ch\u1ec9 gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n \u1edf cung c\u1ea5p t\u00ednh linh ho\u1ea1t, d\u1ef1 ph\u00f2ng trong h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng \u0111i\u1ec7n v\u1edbi 70% ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o c\u00e1c ngu\u1ed3n n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u00e1i t\u1ea1o bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i (Variable Renewable Energy Sources – VRES [2]<\/strong>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u1eeb nay \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2050, c\u00f4ng su\u1ea5t n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u1eb7t tr\u1eddi t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p 22 l\u1ea7n, c\u00f4ng su\u1ea5t gi\u00f3 t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p 9 l\u1ea7n, trong \u0111\u00f3 gi\u00f3 tr\u00ean b\u1edd g\u1ea5p 7 l\u1ea7n v\u00e0 gi\u00f3 ngo\u00e0i kh\u01a1i g\u1ea5p 56 l\u1ea7n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y l\u00e0 do c\u1ea3 chi ph\u00ed gi\u1ea3m v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 gia t\u0103ng c\u1ee7a VRES v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t l\u1ed9 tr\u00ecnh r\u1ebb nh\u1ea5t v\u00e0 nhanh nh\u1ea5t cho c\u1ea3 qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh kh\u1eed cacbon v\u00e0 an ninh n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng. Chi ph\u00ed n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng quy \u0111\u1ed5i b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u (LCOE) cho \u0111i\u1ec7n m\u1eb7t tr\u1eddi hi\u1ec7n nay \u1edf m\u1ee9c kho\u1ea3ng 5 UScent\/MWh v\u00e0 12 UScent\/MWh cho n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u1eb7t tr\u1eddi + b\u1ed9 l\u01b0u tr\u1eef. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y s\u1ebd l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m kho\u1ea3ng 3 UScent\/MWh \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi pin m\u1eb7t tr\u1eddi v\u00e0o gi\u1eefa th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chi ph\u00ed n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u1eb7t tr\u1eddi + l\u01b0u tr\u1eef hi\u1ec7n nay cao g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i pin n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u1eb7t tr\u1eddi kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 l\u01b0u tr\u1eef. Gi\u00e1 pin m\u1eb7t tr\u1eddi gi\u1ea3m s\u1ebd thu h\u1eb9p kho\u1ea3ng c\u00e1ch n\u00e0y xu\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n kho\u1ea3ng 50% v\u00e0o gi\u1eefa th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 n\u00e0y. Trong v\u00f2ng m\u1ed9t th\u1eadp k\u1ef7, kho\u1ea3ng 1\/5 t\u1ed5ng s\u1ed1 pin m\u1eb7t tr\u1eddi s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1eafp \u0111\u1eb7t b\u1ed9 l\u01b0u tr\u1eef chuy\u00ean d\u1ee5ng v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u1eefa th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 n\u00e0y, s\u1ed1 pin m\u1eb7t tr\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1eafp \u0111\u1eb7t b\u1ed9 l\u01b0u tr\u1eef s\u1ebd t\u0103ng l\u00ean m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda. Vi\u1ec7c l\u1eafp \u0111\u1eb7t h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u1eb7t tr\u1eddi tr\u00ean to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u m\u1ed7i n\u0103m s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea1t 550 GW cho \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2040.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

LCOE cho gi\u00f3 c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 n\u1ed5i ngo\u00e0i kh\u01a1i gi\u1ea3m 39% v\u00e0 84% t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ebfn 2050. Th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n gi\u00f3 tr\u00ean b\u1edd do \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n thu\u1ea7n th\u1ee5c, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m chi ph\u00ed \u0111\u1ebfn 52%. Nh\u1eefng ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n n\u00e0y th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y s\u1ef1 gia t\u0103ng c\u1ee7a \u0111i\u1ec7n gi\u00f3 ph\u00e1t v\u00e0o l\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eeb 1.600 TWh\/n\u0103m v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2020 l\u00ean 19.000 TWh\/n\u0103m v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2050. B\u1edfi n\u0103m 2050, gi\u00f3 s\u1ebd cung c\u1ea5p g\u1ea7n 50% l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111i\u1ec7n l\u01b0\u1edbi \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u00e0 40% \u1edf B\u1eafc M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 ch\u00e2u M\u1ef9 Latinh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trong m\u1ed9t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi ch\u1ee9ng ki\u1ebfn \u200b\u200bs\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2050, v\u1edbi s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u1ee7y \u0111i\u1ec7n v\u1eabn s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o 13% t\u1ed5ng cung c\u1ea5p \u0111i\u1ec7n, m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m t\u1eeb 16% v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2020, trong khi v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1eabn t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng v\u00e0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 m\u1ea5t \u0111i n\u00e0y s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c chuy\u1ec3n sang n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng gi\u00f3, m\u1eb7t tr\u1eddi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd ch\u1ea5t th\u1ea3i, chi ph\u00ed v\u00e0 th\u1eddi gian x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng cao l\u00e2u nay v\u1eabn l\u00e0 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u00f2n t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi \u0111i\u1ec7n h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n. Tuy nhi\u00ean, nh\u1eefng lo ng\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 an ninh n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng hi\u1ec7n nay \u0111\u00e3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 quan t\u00e2m m\u1edbi \u0111\u1ebfn ngu\u1ed3n \u0111i\u1ec7n n\u00e0y v\u00e0 n\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng khi\u00eam t\u1ed1n l\u00e0 13% \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2050 so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c ng\u00e0y nay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/ \u0110i\u1ec7n gi\u00f3:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0110i\u1ec7n l\u01b0\u1edbi t\u1eeb gi\u00f3 t\u0103ng t\u1eeb 1,6 PWh\/n\u0103m [3]<\/strong> v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2020 \u0111\u1ebfn 19 PWh\/n\u0103m v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2050 v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ea1i l\u1ee5c, ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u00e0 B\u1eafc M\u1ef9 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u v\u1ec1 s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc OECD v\u00e0 M\u1ef9 La Tinh t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng m\u1ea1nh t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2030. Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u00e0 OECD Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng s\u1ebd c\u00f3 t\u1ef7 tr\u1ecdng gi\u00f3 ngo\u00e0i kh\u01a1i cao nh\u1ea5t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

C\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i tua bin m\u1edbi v\u00e0 tua bin c\u00f4ng su\u1ea5t l\u1edbn h\u01a1n, c\u00e1c c\u00e1nh qu\u1ea1t v\u00e0 th\u00e1p gi\u00f3 s\u1ebd n\u00e2ng cao h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 c\u00f4ng su\u1ea5t cho \u0111i\u1ec7n gi\u00f3 tr\u00ean b\u1edd (t\u1eeb 26% hi\u1ec7n nay l\u00ean 34%), v\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec7n gi\u00f3 ngo\u00e0i kh\u01a1i t\u1eeb 38% hi\u1ec7n nay l\u00ean 43% v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2050. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y, c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi c\u00e1c tua bin r\u1ebb h\u01a1n, l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c gi\u1ea3m 52% chi ph\u00ed cho gi\u00f3 tr\u00ean b\u1edd trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2020 – 2050, v\u1edbi c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n gi\u00f3 ngo\u00e0i kh\u01a1i l\u1eafp m\u00f3ng c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 m\u00f3ng n\u1ed5i, chi ph\u00ed l\u1ea7n l\u01b0\u1ee3t gi\u1ea3m 39% v\u00e0 84%. Trong s\u1ed1 6 TW [3]<\/strong> c\u00f4ng su\u1ea5t gi\u00f3 l\u1eafp \u0111\u1eb7t v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2050, th\u00ec 1,8 TW s\u1ebd l\u00e0 gi\u00f3 m\u00f3ng c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 289 GW gi\u00f3 m\u00f3ng n\u1ed5i ngo\u00e0i kh\u01a1i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ \u0110i\u1ec7n n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u1eb7t tr\u1eddi:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S\u1ef1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a \u0111i\u1ec7n m\u1eb7t tr\u1eddi r\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e1ng ch\u00fa \u00fd: 1 GW m\u1ed7i n\u0103m \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1eafp \u0111\u1eb7t l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2004, 10 GW \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00eam v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2010 v\u00e0 100 GW v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u00e0o n\u0103m 2021, 150 GW \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00eam v\u00e0o b\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5p s\u1ef1 gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng do COVID-19. T\u1eeb n\u0103m 2030 tr\u1edf \u0111i, d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn \u200b\u200bh\u00e0ng n\u0103m s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u1ed5 sung t\u1eeb 300 \u0111\u1ebfn 500 GW.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u00e0o gi\u1eefa th\u1ebf k\u1ef7, t\u1ed5ng c\u00f4ng su\u1ea5t l\u1eafp \u0111\u1eb7t s\u1ebd l\u00e0 9,5 TW cho \u0111i\u1ec7n m\u1eb7t tr\u1eddi v\u00e0 5 TW cho n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u1eb7t tr\u1eddi + l\u01b0u tr\u1eef. K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2050 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi s\u1ebd c\u00f3 14,5 TW c\u00f4ng su\u1ea5t n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u1eb7t tr\u1eddi, g\u1ea5p 24 l\u1ea7n n\u0103m 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

LCOE [4]<\/strong> trung b\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a \u0111i\u1ec7n m\u1eb7t tr\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m \u1edf m\u1ee9c \u00edt nh\u1ea5t 40% v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2050, v\u1edbi c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n ri\u00eang l\u1ebb gi\u1ea3m b\u1eb1ng 60% so v\u1edbi chi ph\u00ed trung b\u00ecnh ng\u00e0y nay. \u0110i\u1ec7n m\u1eb7t tr\u1eddi s\u1ebd l\u00e0 ngu\u1ed3n \u0111i\u1ec7n m\u1edbi r\u1ebb nh\u1ea5t tr\u00ean to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u b\u1edfi m\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3, m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 c\u00f4ng su\u1ea5t th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ngu\u1ed3n VRES kh\u00e1c. \u0110\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2050, 23 PWh\/n\u0103m c\u1ee7a \u0111i\u1ec7n m\u1eb7t tr\u1eddi s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1o ra tr\u00ean to\u00e0n th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/ L\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111i\u1ec7n:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u1ed5ng \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o l\u01b0\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh l\u00e0 USD 450 t\u1ef7\/n\u0103m trong th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 qua. S\u1ef1 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u00e1i t\u1ea1o d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 gia t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u1eb7n c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o l\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111i\u1ec7n, \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c 500 t\u1ef7 USD\/n\u0103m v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 2030 v\u00e0 t\u0103ng l\u00ean 1,1 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 USD\/n\u0103m v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2050. T\u1ed5ng s\u1ed1 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111o b\u1eb1ng s\u1ed1 km – m\u1ea1ch c\u1ee7a \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng d\u00e2y truy\u1ec1n t\u1ea3i v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i s\u1ebd t\u0103ng g\u1ea7n g\u1ea5p ba l\u1ea7n trong kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian t\u1eeb nay \u0111\u1ebfn 2050.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u00ednh linh ho\u1ea1t v\u00e0 l\u01b0u tr\u1eef \u0111i\u1ec7n:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/ T\u00ednh linh ho\u1ea1t:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u1edbi s\u1ef1 gia t\u0103ng c\u00f4ng su\u1ea5t VRES to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u g\u1ea5p 16 l\u1ea7n v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2050, nhu c\u1ea7u v\u1ec1 t\u00ednh linh ho\u1ea1t c\u1ee7a ngu\u1ed3n \u0111i\u1ec7n s\u1ebd t\u0103ng l\u00ean t\u1eeb hai \u0111\u1ebfn b\u1ed1n l\u1ea7n gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c ngu\u1ed3n nhi\u1ec7t \u0111i\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ec1u cung c\u1ea5p t\u00ednh linh ho\u1ea1t nh\u01b0 nhau cho h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng \u0111i\u1ec7n, n\u1ebfu t\u00ednh t\u1eeb \u0111i\u1ec7n h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n, n\u01a1i s\u1ef1 linh ho\u1ea1t l\u00e0 th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3, ti\u1ebfp theo l\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y nhi\u1ec7t \u0111i\u1ec7n than, d\u1ea7u, kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng nhi\u1ec1u th\u00ec t\u00ednh linh ho\u1ea1t c\u00e0ng t\u0103ng, nh\u01b0ng r\u1ea5t t\u1ed1n k\u00e9m. \u0110i\u1ec1u quan tr\u1ecdng kh\u00f4ng k\u00e9m l\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y nhi\u1ec7t \u0111i\u1ec7n khi ch\u00fang ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 ph\u1ee5 t\u1ea3i th\u1ea5p.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S\u1ef1 th\u00edch \u1ee9ng cho t\u00ednh linh ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u1ea3 v\u1ec1 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ea5t l\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u00f3a v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n c\u00e1c m\u1ee9c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u00e1i t\u1ea1o. C\u00e1c thi\u1ebft k\u1ebf th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi s\u1ebd l\u00e0 c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ec3 khuy\u1ebfn kh\u00edch s\u1ef1 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng linh ho\u1ea1t c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y nhi\u1ec7t \u0111i\u1ec7n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u00ednh linh ho\u1ea1t t\u1eeb ph\u00eda nhu c\u1ea7u – t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 chuy\u1ec3n vi\u1ec7c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eeb th\u1eddi gian cao \u0111i\u1ec3m sang th\u1eddi gian c\u00f3 nhu c\u1ea7u th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n v\u00e0 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 d\u01b0 th\u1eeba c\u1ee7a n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u00e1i t\u1ea1o c\u0169ng s\u1ebd \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 then ch\u1ed1t. Vi\u1ec7c tri\u1ec3n khai c\u00e1c t\u00ednh n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111i\u1ec7n th\u00f4ng minh s\u1ebd cho ph\u00e9p qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n c\u00e1c d\u00f2ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

C\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 v\u00e0 c\u00e1c c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi c\u0169ng s\u1ebd cho ph\u00e9p nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng t\u00edch c\u1ef1c h\u01a1n bao gi\u1edd h\u1ebft cung c\u1ea5p s\u1ef1 linh ho\u1ea1t d\u01b0\u1edbi c\u00e1c h\u00ecnh th\u1ee9c ph\u1ea3n h\u1ed3i nhu c\u1ea7u, ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ti\u1ec7n n\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1edbi v\u00e0 l\u01b0u tr\u1eef sau c\u00f4ng-t\u01a1. Vi\u1ec7c chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i VRES v\u00e0 \u1edf m\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, c\u00e1c ngu\u1ed3n nhi\u1ec7t \u0111i\u1ec7n nh\u01b0 h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n, \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c ch\u1ea5t mang n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng kh\u00e1c (ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 hydro) l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn kh\u00e1c s\u1ebd cung c\u1ea5p t\u00ednh linh ho\u1ea1t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ L\u01b0u tr\u1eef \u0111i\u1ec7n:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ng\u00e0y nay, th\u1ee7y \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u00edch n\u0103ng cung c\u1ea5p h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c b\u1ed9 l\u01b0u tr\u1eef cho h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng \u0111i\u1ec7n, nh\u01b0ng ch\u00fang s\u1ebd ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u00f3ng g\u00f3p m\u1ed9t ch\u00fat trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai. C\u00e1c b\u1ed9 pin s\u1ebd cung c\u1ea5p h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft nhu c\u1ea7u l\u01b0u tr\u1eef kh\u1ed5ng l\u1ed3 trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai, \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp, ho\u1eb7c trong c\u00e1c c\u1ea5u h\u00ecnh n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u1eb7t tr\u1eddi + l\u01b0u tr\u1eef, ho\u1eb7c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ti\u1ec7n n\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1edbi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u1eeb n\u0103m 2020 \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2050, quy m\u00f4 l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp b\u1ed9 l\u01b0u tr\u1eef s\u1ebd t\u0103ng t\u1eeb 2,7 TWh l\u00ean 8,8 TWh. Trong s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y, dung l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u01b0u tr\u1eef pin Li-ion s\u1ebd ch\u1ee9ng ki\u1ebfn \u200b\u200bm\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t, t\u1eeb g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 g\u00ec l\u00ean 4,4 TWh v\u00e0o gi\u1eefa th\u1ebf k\u1ef7.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 n\u00e0y, pin tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i r\u1eafn d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 s\u1ebd cung c\u1ea5p ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t cho m\u1ed9t l\u00e0n s\u00f3ng ti\u1ebfp theo v\u1ec1 c\u1ea3i ti\u1ebfn hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t v\u00e0 chi ph\u00ed. C\u00e1c h\u00f3a ch\u1ea5t thay th\u1ebf c\u0169ng s\u1ebd ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng t\u0103ng nhu c\u1ea7u l\u01b0u tr\u1eef v\u1edbi th\u1eddi l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u00e0i h\u01a1n (5 gi\u1edd tr\u1edf l\u00ean). V\u1ec1 l\u00e2u d\u00e0i, chi ph\u00ed cho pin s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ea9y l\u00ean ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi xu th\u1ebf chi ph\u00ed l\u00e0 19% v\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m h\u01a1n 80% chi ph\u00ed t\u1eeb nay \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2050.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

TS. Nguy\u1ec5n M\u1ea1nh Hi\u1ebfn – Chuy\u00ean gia t\u1ea1p ch\u00ed N\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Vi\u1ec7t Nam<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Ghi ch\u00fa:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[1]<\/strong> Mb\/d – Million Barrels per day – Tri\u1ec7u th\u00f9ng ng\u00e0y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[2]<\/strong> VRES: Variable Renewable Energy Sources.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[3]<\/strong> PWh – Petra-watt-hours = 1012<\/sup> KWh; TW = 106<\/sup> MW.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[4]<\/strong> LCOE – Levelized Cost of Electricity (Chi ph\u00ed \u0111i\u1ec7n n\u0103ng quy d\u1eabn).<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n

Aufrufe: 303<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u0110\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2050, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u01a1 c\u1ea5p c\u1ee7a nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u h\u00f3a th\u1ea1ch s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi 50% so v\u1edbi 80% th\u1ecb ph\u1ea7n hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u00e0 do qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh \u0111i\u1ec7n kh\u00ed h\u00f3a nhanh ch\u00f3ng, kh\u1eed cacbon, t\u0103ng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n \u0111i\u1ec7n gi\u00f3, m\u1eb7t …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[97,1,37],"tags":[149],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/east-sea.de\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11703"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/east-sea.de\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/east-sea.de\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/east-sea.de\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/east-sea.de\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11703"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/east-sea.de\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11703\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11712,"href":"https:\/\/east-sea.de\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11703\/revisions\/11712"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/east-sea.de\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11703"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/east-sea.de\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11703"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/east-sea.de\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11703"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}