{"id":4753,"date":"2019-07-15T22:34:48","date_gmt":"2019-07-15T20:34:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/east-sea.de\/?p=4753"},"modified":"2019-07-20T22:49:34","modified_gmt":"2019-07-20T20:49:34","slug":"tieng-viet-ly-giai-song-ngam-tai-bai-tu-chinh","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/east-sea.de\/vi\/2019\/07\/15\/tieng-viet-ly-giai-song-ngam-tai-bai-tu-chinh\/","title":{"rendered":"L\u00fd gi\u1ea3i s\u00f3ng ng\u1ea7m t\u1ea1i b\u00e3i T\u01b0 Ch\u00ednh"},"content":{"rendered":"
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B\u00e3i T\u01b0 Ch\u00ednh n\u1eb1m trong th\u1ec1m l\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ecba c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam c\u00e1ch V\u0169ng T\u00e0u 440km v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng thu\u1ed9c qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Tr\u01b0\u1eddng Sa.<\/p><\/div>\n

14-7-2019. B\u00e0i c\u1ee7a Nguy\u1ec5n Quang Dy chuy\u00ean gia nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf, nh\u00e0 b\u00e1o t\u1ef1 do<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u201cMu\u1ed1n h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh ph\u1ea3i chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb chi\u1ebfn tranh<\/em>\u201d (Si vis pacem, para bellum).<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nh\u1eefng g\u00ec \u0111ang di\u1ec5n ra t\u1ea1i b\u00e3i T\u01b0 Ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 d\u01b0 ch\u1ea5n nh\u01b0 s\u00f3ng ng\u1ea7m ti\u1ebfp theo kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng l\u1ea7n tr\u01b0\u1edbc (7\/2017 v\u00e0 3\/2018). V\u00ec v\u1eady, tuy kh\u00f4ng b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd nh\u01b0ng c\u0169ng \u0111\u1eebng ch\u1ee7 quan. Theo b\u00e1o SCMP (12\/7\/2019), Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e3 \u0111i\u1ec1u t\u1ea7u HD-8 \u0111\u1ebfn v\u00f9ng bi\u1ec3n g\u1ea7n b\u00e3i T\u01b0 Ch\u00ednh (Vanguard Bank) \u0111\u1ec3 th\u0103m d\u00f2 d\u1ea7u kh\u00ed (t\u1eeb 3\/7\/2019). T\u00e0u HD-8 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ed9 t\u1ed1ng b\u1edfi 2 t\u00e0u h\u1ea3i c\u1ea3nh s\u1ed1 3901 (12.000 t\u1ea5n) v\u00e0 s\u1ed1 37111 (2.200 t\u1ea5n), \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c trang b\u1ecb tr\u1ef1c th\u0103ng v\u00e0 ph\u00e1o.<\/p>\n

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\u00d4ng Nguy\u1ec5n Quang Dy \u0111\u00e3 t\u1eebng h\u1ecdc t\u1eadp v\u00e0 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u t\u1ea1i \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Qu\u1ed1c gia \u00dac (ANU, 1976-1979), \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Harvard (Nieman Fellow, 1992-1993), c\u00f4ng t\u00e1c t\u1ea1i B\u1ed9 Ngo\u1ea1i giao (1971-2005). \u00d4ng l\u00e0 chuy\u00ean gia v\u1ec1 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf, truy\u1ec1n th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o ch\u00ed, v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e0o t\u1ea1o; \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m c\u1ed1 v\u1ea5n c\u1ea5p cao cho m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c\/ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e0o t\u1ea1o; hi\u1ec7n nay l\u00e0 nh\u00e0 b\u00e1o t\u1ef1 do v\u00e0 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u\/t\u01b0 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp.<\/p><\/div>\n

C\u1ea3nh S\u00e1t Bi\u1ec3n Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111\u00e3 \u0111i\u1ec1u 4 t\u00e0u CSB \u0111\u1ebfn ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n c\u00e1c t\u00e0u Trung Qu\u1ed1c vi ph\u1ea1m ch\u1ee7 quy\u1ec1n. Ngo\u00e0i 4 t\u00e0u CSB Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u00e0 2 t\u00e0u h\u1ea3i c\u1ea3nh Trung Qu\u1ed1c tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u (stand-off) su\u1ed1t tu\u1ea7n qua t\u1ea1i v\u00f9ng bi\u1ec3n g\u1ea7n b\u00e3i T\u01b0 Ch\u00ednh (c\u00e1ch V\u0169ng T\u1ea7u kho\u1ea3ng 440km), c\u00f3 h\u00e0ng ch\u1ee5c t\u00e0u kh\u00e1c c\u1ee7a hai b\u00ean ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng \u1edf ngo\u1ea1i vi. S\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n n\u00e0y x\u1ea3y ra b\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5p cam k\u1ebft (5\/2019) c\u1ee7a b\u1ed9 tr\u01b0\u1edfng Qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng hai n\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u1eb1m gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft tranh ch\u1ea5p qua \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n.<\/p>\n

Theo b\u00e1o ch\u00ed ch\u00ednh th\u1ed1ng (11\/7\/2019), Th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng Nguy\u1ec5n Xu\u00e2n Ph\u00fac \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ebfn th\u0103m v\u00e0 l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c v\u1edbi B\u1ed9 T\u01b0 l\u1ec7nh C\u1ea3nh s\u00e1t Bi\u1ec3n. Theo ngu\u1ed3n tin kh\u00f4ng ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c, Th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111\u00e3 n\u00f3i chuy\u1ec7n qua \u0111i\u1ec7n tho\u1ea1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c t\u00e0u CSB \u0111ang ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ea1i v\u00f9ng bi\u1ec3n b\u00e3i T\u01b0 Ch\u00ednh. Tuy n\u1ed9i dung c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o, nh\u01b0ng ch\u1eafc Th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u1ea1o CSB n\u00e2ng cao c\u1ea3nh gi\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh b\u1ecb \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng kh\u00f3 l\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra tr\u00ean bi\u1ec3n.<\/p>\n

B\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh c\u0169<\/strong><\/p>\n

Cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u l\u1ea7n n\u00e0y ti\u1ebfp n\u1ed1i cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng l\u1ea7n tr\u01b0\u1edbc t\u1ea1i b\u00e3i T\u01b0 Ch\u00ednh (7\/2017 & 3\/2018) c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n d\u00e0n khoan HD-981 (5\/2014). Trong cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng l\u1ea7n tr\u01b0\u1edbc, Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e3 huy \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u00e0ng tr\u0103m t\u00e0u \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ed9 t\u1ed1ng d\u00e0n khoan HD-760 ti\u1ebfn v\u00e0o v\u00f9ng \u0111\u1eb7c quy\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam. H\u1ecd \u0111\u00e3 \u0111e d\u1ecda Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111\u1ec3 bu\u1ed9c Repsol ph\u1ea3i d\u1eebng khoan t\u1ea1i l\u00f4 136\/03 (C\u00e1 Ki\u1ebfm N\u00e2u) v\u00e0 l\u00f4 07\/03 (C\u00e1 R\u1ed3ng \u0110\u1ecf) n\u1eb1m tr\u00ean th\u1ec1m l\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ecba c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam.<\/p>\n

Theo c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia, Exxonmobil (M\u1ef9) k\u00fd h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng v\u1edbi PVN \u0111\u1ec3 khai th\u00e1c kh\u00ed t\u1ea1i l\u00f4 118 (C\u00e1 Voi Xanh) c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m B\u1eafc Kinh t\u1ee9c gi\u1eadn. Nh\u01b0ng ch\u1eafc h\u1ecd t\u1ee9c gi\u1eadn h\u01a1n khi PVN v\u00e0 Repsol (T\u00e2y Ban Nha) \u0111\u1ecbnh khai th\u00e1c d\u1ea7u kh\u00ed t\u1ea1i l\u00f4 136\/03 v\u00e0 l\u00f4 07\/03 t\u1ea1i khu v\u1ef1c b\u00e3i T\u01b0 Ch\u00ednh. L\u00f4 136\/03 v\u00e0 07\/03 k\u1ec1 b\u00ean (overlaps) m\u1ed9t l\u00f4 d\u1ea7u kh\u00ed l\u1edbn m\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e3 b\u00e1n quy\u1ec1n khai th\u00e1c cho Crestone (t\u1eeb n\u0103m 1992) nay thu\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n Brightoil (Trung Qu\u1ed1c).<\/p>\n

Th\u00e1ng 4\/2017, k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch khai th\u00e1c d\u1ea7u kh\u00ed t\u1ea1i c\u1ee5m C\u00e1 R\u1ed3ng \u0110\u1ecf \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 Vi\u1ec7t Nam ch\u1ea5p thu\u1eadn, theo \u0111\u00f3 12 gi\u1ebfng d\u1ea7u s\u1ebd l\u1ea7n l\u01b0\u1ee3t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u01b0a v\u00e0o ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng (t\u1eeb cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2019) c\u00f3 t\u1ed5ng c\u00f4ng su\u1ea5t khai th\u00e1c m\u1ed7i ng\u00e0y t\u1eeb 25.000 \u0111\u1ebfn 30.000 th\u00f9ng d\u1ea7u v\u00e0 60 tri\u1ec7u m3 kh\u00ed thi\u00ean nhi\u00ean. V\u00ec l\u00f4 07\/03 (C\u00e1 R\u1ed3ng \u0111\u1ecf) n\u1eb1m g\u1ea7n b\u1edd nh\u1ea5t n\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u01b0u ti\u00ean tri\u1ec3n khai tr\u01b0\u1edbc. Nh\u01b0ng trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh hi\u1ec7n nay, c\u1ea7n tri\u1ec3n khai s\u1edbm d\u1ef1 \u00e1n C\u00e1 Voi Xanh (l\u00e0 \u01b0u ti\u00ean cao nh\u1ea5t).<\/p>\n

Theo ngu\u1ed3n tin kh\u1ea3 t\u00edn t\u1eeb gi\u1edbi kinh doanh d\u1ea7u kh\u00ed qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf, vi\u1ec7c h\u1ee7y b\u1ecf k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch khai th\u00e1c d\u1ea7u kh\u00ed t\u1ea1i m\u1ecf C\u00e1 R\u1ed3ng \u0111\u1ecf khi\u1ebfn c\u00e1c b\u00ean tham gia ph\u1ea3i ch\u1ecbu thi\u1ec7t h\u1ea1i l\u00ean t\u1edbi 200 tri\u1ec7u USD. Nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 do \u00e1p l\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00f2i ch\u1ee7 quy\u1ec1n theo \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u201cl\u01b0\u1ee1i b\u00f2\u201d, v\u00e0 \u0111e d\u1ecda t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea3o do Vi\u1ec7t Nam ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t t\u1ea1i Tr\u01b0\u1eddng Sa v\u00e0 b\u00e3i T\u01b0 Ch\u00ednh.<\/p>\n

Nh\u01b0ng theo quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam (v\u00e0 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf), vi\u1ec7c B\u1eafc Kinh kh\u00f4ng cho Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u00e0 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c th\u0103m d\u00f2 v\u00e0 khai th\u00e1c d\u1ea7u kh\u00ed t\u1ea1i l\u00f4 136\/03 v\u00e0 07\/03, hay l\u00f4 118, l\u00e0 v\u00f4 l\u00fd v\u00e0 ngang ng\u01b0\u1ee3c. Tuy l\u00f4 118 n\u1eb1m ngo\u00e0i \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u201cL\u01b0\u1ee1i b\u00f2\u201d, nh\u01b0ng Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u1eabn l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng khi ExxonMobil khai th\u00e1c h\u1ecd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u00fat c\u1ea1n ki\u1ec7t b\u1ec3 kh\u00ed \u201cn\u1eb1m d\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng L\u01b0\u1ee1i B\u00f2\u201d.<\/p>\n

Th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m m\u1edbi<\/strong><\/p>\n

Theo Stratfor (12\/7\/2019) \u201cTrung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111\u1ec1u kh\u00f4ng th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o c\u00f4ng khai v\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u l\u1ea7n n\u00e0y v\u00ec h\u1ecd kh\u00f4ng mu\u1ed1n t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng \u0111\u00f3 leo thang v\u00e0o l\u00fac n\u00e0y\u201d. B\u00e1o ch\u00ed hai n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng l\u00ean ti\u1ebfng (tr\u1eeb b\u00e1o SCMP t\u1ea1i Hong Kong). Nh\u01b0ng t\u1eeb n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i, \u00f4ng Jack Ma, ch\u1ee7 c\u1ee7a Alibaba \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh c\u1ed5 \u0111\u00f4ng l\u1edbn c\u1ee7a b\u00e1o n\u00e0y, n\u00ean SCMP kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp nh\u01b0 tr\u01b0\u1edbc. Tuy nhi\u00ean, ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta bi\u1ebft r\u1eb1ng ng\u00e0y nay m\u1ecdi ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng tr\u00ean bi\u1ec3n kh\u00f4ng qua \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1eaft v\u1ec7 tinh, v\u00e0 m\u1ecdi di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng b\u01b0ng b\u00edt \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00f4ng tin nh\u01b0 tr\u01b0\u1edbc.<\/p>\n

Nh\u01b0ng \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e1ng l\u01b0u \u00fd l\u00e0 th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m x\u1ea3y ra s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u1ea1i B\u00e3i T\u01b0 ch\u00ednh l\u1ea1i tr\u00f9ng h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi chuy\u1ebfn th\u0103m ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u1ee7a Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch Qu\u1ed1c h\u1ed9i Vi\u1ec7t Nam. Ti\u1ebfp theo th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn \u201ch\u01b0u chi\u1ebfn\u201d M\u1ef9-Trung t\u1ea1i G-20 Osaka summit (29\/6\/2019), M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u00e1nh thu\u1ebf 456% l\u00ean th\u00e9p c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam c\u00f3 ngu\u1ed3n g\u1ed1c t\u1eeb \u0110\u00e0i Loan hay H\u00e0n Qu\u1ed1c. B\u1eafc Kinh c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ngh\u0129 r\u1eb1ng l\u00fac n\u00e0y H\u00e0 N\u1ed9i \u0111ang \u1edf th\u1ebf b\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i, n\u00ean h\u1ecd c\u1ea7n g\u00e2y s\u1ee9c \u00e9p m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n

Trong khi ti\u1ebfp Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch Qu\u1ed1c h\u1ed9i Vi\u1ec7t Nam Nguy\u1ec5n Th\u1ecb Kim Ng\u00e2n t\u1ea1i B\u1eafc Kinh (11\/7\/2019), Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch T\u1eadp C\u1eadn B\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e3 n\u00f3i \u201chai n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00ean b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh v\u00e0 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh tr\u00ean bi\u1ec3n b\u1eb1ng h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3\u201d (safeguard maritime peace and stability with concrete actions). Tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3, Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch Qu\u1ed1c h\u1ed9i Trung Qu\u1ed1c L\u1eadt Chi\u1ebfn Th\u01b0 c\u0169ng \u0111\u00e3 n\u00f3i v\u1edbi Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch Qu\u1ed1c h\u1ed9i Vi\u1ec7t Nam l\u00e0 \u201chai b\u00ean n\u00ean c\u1ed9ng t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng b\u1ed9 quy t\u1eafc \u1ee9ng x\u1eed (COC) t\u1ea1i Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng\u201d.<\/p>\n

Tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3, khi G-20 Osaka summit \u0111ang h\u1ecdp th\u00ec H\u1ea3i qu\u00e2n Trung Qu\u1ed1c t\u1eadp tr\u1eadn b\u1eafn \u0111\u1ea1n th\u1eadt t\u1ea1i Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng (ph\u00eda B\u1eafc Tr\u01b0\u1eddng Sa, t\u1eeb 29\/6 \u0111\u1ebfn 3\/7). B\u1ed9 Qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng M\u1ef9 c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e3 b\u1eafn th\u1eed t\u00ean l\u1eeda di\u1ec7t h\u1ea1m YJ-12 t\u1eeb Tr\u01b0\u1eddng Sa, \u0111e d\u1ecda t\u1ef1 do h\u1ea3i h\u00e0nh t\u1ea1i Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng. G\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, (6\/2019) H\u1ea3i qu\u00e2n Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ea1i khu v\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ea3o Th\u1ecb T\u1ee9, v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e2m ch\u00ecm m\u1ed9t t\u00e0u \u0111\u00e1nh c\u00e1 Philippines t\u1ea1i b\u00e3i C\u1ecf Rong (m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u1ee9u ng\u01b0\u1eddi).<\/p>\n

C\u00f3 th\u1ec3 n\u00f3i, trong khi M\u1ef9-Trung \u201cv\u1eeba \u0111\u00e1nh v\u1eeba \u0111\u00e0m\u201d, Trung Qu\u1ed1c t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng g\u00e2y s\u1ee9c \u00e9p v\u00e0 b\u1eaft n\u1ea1t c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc khu v\u1ef1c (nh\u01b0 Philippines v\u00e0 Vi\u1ec7t Nam). M\u1ed9t l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ec3 th\u1eed ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3ng minh. Hai l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e2n h\u00f3a ASEAN v\u00e0 gi\u1eef Vi\u1ec7t Nam kh\u00f4ng ng\u1ea3 theo M\u1ef9, tr\u01b0\u1edbc chuy\u1ebfn th\u0103m M\u1ef9 c\u1ee7a l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o Vi\u1ec7t Nam. Ba l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u1ea5n an n\u1ed9i b\u1ed9 trong n\u01b0\u1edbc, v\u00ec m\u1ed7i khi n\u1ed9i b\u1ed9 b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n th\u00ec B\u1eafc Kinh th\u01b0\u1eddng g\u00e2y chuy\u1ec7n v\u1edbi b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i \u0111\u1ec3 k\u00edch \u0111\u1ed9ng tinh th\u1ea7n d\u00e2n t\u1ed9c.<\/p>\n

Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng chi\u1ebfn tranh<\/strong><\/p>\n

Theo Graham Allison (Belfer Center\/Harvard), M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c d\u1ec5 sa v\u00e0o \u201cb\u1eaby Thucydides\u201d, v\u00e0 chi\u1ebfn tranh t\u1ea1i Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng kh\u00f3 tr\u00e1nh kh\u1ecfi. Allison kh\u1ea3o s\u00e1t 16 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p tranh ch\u1ea5p tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, c\u00f3 12 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn chi\u1ebfn tranh. V\u1edbi \u0111a s\u1ed1 \u00e1p \u0111\u1ea3o (3\/4), Allison l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 \u201cquy lu\u1eadt t\u1ea5t y\u1ebfu\u201d (inevitable). Nh\u01b0ng l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 l\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng \u1ed5n.<\/p>\n

Theo Alexander Vuving (APCSS\/Hawaii), 12 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p Allison cho l\u00e0 \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra chi\u1ebfn tranh c\u00f3 \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m nh\u01b0 \u201cprisoner\u2019s dilemma\u201d, trong khi 4 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i (kh\u00f4ng x\u1ea3y ra chi\u1ebfn tranh) c\u00f3 \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m nh\u01b0 \u201cchicken game\u201d. Theo l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i, 2 lo\u1ea1i \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m kh\u00e1c nhau, n\u00ean k\u1ebft c\u1ee5c kh\u00e1c nhau, kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u201cv\u01a1 \u0111\u0169a c\u1ea3 n\u1eafm\u201d. Trong tranh ch\u1ea5p t\u1ea1i Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng, kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u1ea3y ra chi\u1ebfn tranh M\u1ef9-Trung \u201cr\u1ea5t th\u1ea5p\u201d (unlikely) v\u00ec gi\u1ed1ng \u201cchicken game\u201d.<\/p>\n

T\u1ea1i Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng, Trung Qu\u1ed1c tri\u1ec3n khai chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u201ct\u1ea7m \u0103n d\u00e2u\u201d \u0111\u1ec3 \u201cthay \u0111\u1ed5i th\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ecba\u201d (change facts on the ground) nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t \u201cchuy\u1ec7n \u0111\u00e3 r\u1ed3i\u201d (fait accomli). Trong khi ng\u01b0\u1eddi Trung Qu\u1ed1c coi Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t \u201cv\u00f9ng x\u00e1m\u201d (grey area) \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ecd ch\u01a1i c\u1edd v\u00e2y v\u00e0 v\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng Binh ph\u00e1p T\u00f4n T\u1eed (kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u00e1nh m\u00e0 th\u1eafng), th\u00ec ng\u01b0\u1eddi M\u1ef9 th\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u01a1i c\u1edd vua v\u00e0 v\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng binh ph\u00e1p Clausewitz. \u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 hai c\u00e1ch t\u01b0 duy theo h\u1ec7 quy chi\u1ebfu kh\u00e1c nhau, kh\u00f4ng n\u00ean l\u1eabn l\u1ed9n.<\/p>\n

T\u1ea1i Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng, Trung Qu\u1ed1c th\u01b0\u1eddng d\u00f9ng k\u1ebf s\u00e1ch \u201cb\u00ean mi\u1ec7ng h\u1ed1 chi\u1ebfn tranh\u201d (brinkmanship) \u0111\u1ec3 b\u1eaft ch\u1eb9t \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u1ea3i nh\u00e2n nh\u01b0\u1ee3ng. Trong tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i \u201cbrinkmanship\u201d, mu\u1ed1n h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh ph\u1ea3i s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng chi\u1ebfn tranh. Winston Churchill \u0111\u00e3 n\u00f3i \u201cM\u1ed9t d\u00e2n t\u1ed9c t\u00ecm c\u00e1ch tr\u00e1nh chi\u1ebfn tranh b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1i gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 nh\u1ee5c nh\u00e3 th\u00ec cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng s\u1ebd nh\u1eadn l\u1ea5y c\u1ea3 s\u1ef1 nh\u1ee5c nh\u00e3 v\u00e0 chi\u1ebfn tranh\u201d. C\u1ee5 H\u1ed3 c\u0169ng t\u1eebng n\u00f3i \u201cch\u00fang ta c\u00e0ng nh\u00e2n nh\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u00ec th\u1ef1c d\u00e2n Ph\u00e1p c\u00e0ng l\u1ea5n t\u1edbi\u201d. Nay Trung Qu\u1ed1c l\u00e0 \u201cth\u1ef1c d\u00e2n m\u1edbi\u201d (l\u1eddi \u00f4ng Mahathir), n\u1ebfu c\u00e0ng nh\u00e2n nh\u01b0\u1ee3ng, h\u1ecd c\u00e0ng l\u1ea5n t\u1edbi.<\/p>\n

D\u01b0\u1edbi th\u1eddi \u00f4ng Obama, M\u1ef9 kh\u00f4ng d\u00e1m \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ea7u v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c nh\u01b0 th\u1eddi \u00f4ng Trump hi\u1ec7n nay. Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e3 n\u1eafm \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u1ed7 y\u1ebfu \u0111\u00f3, n\u00ean \u0111\u00e3 l\u1ea5n t\u1edbi. Tu\u1ea7n tra FONOP t\u1ea1i Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng theo c\u00e1ch \u201c\u0111i qua v\u00f4 h\u1ea1i\u201d (innocent passage) \u0111\u00e3 v\u00f4 h\u00ecnh trung khuy\u1ebfn kh\u00edch Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00e0ng hung h\u0103ng h\u01a1n. Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e3 tranh th\u1ee7 b\u1ed3i \u0111\u1eafp v\u00e0 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 h\u00f3a c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea3o nh\u00e2n t\u1ea1o m\u00e0 h\u1ecd chi\u1ebfm t\u1ea1i Ho\u00e0ng Sa v\u00e0 Tr\u01b0\u1eddng Sa th\u00e0nh c\u00e1c c\u0103n c\u1ee9 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 nh\u01b0 hi\u1ec7n nay.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ed1i t\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nh\u01b0ng t\u1ea1i sao Trung Qu\u1ed1c l\u1ea1i t\u1eadp trung g\u00e2y s\u1ee9c \u00e9p t\u1ea1i b\u00e3i T\u01b0 Ch\u00ednh m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng g\u00e2y s\u1ee9c \u00e9p t\u1ea1i m\u1ecf kh\u00ed C\u00e1 Voi Xanh (l\u00f4 118) c\u1ee7a Exxonmobil. \u0110\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n v\u00ec b\u00e3i T\u01b0 Ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 kh\u00e2u y\u1ebfu nh\u1ea5t, kh\u00f3 b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 v\u00ec c\u00e1ch xa b\u1edd (c\u00e1ch V\u0169ng T\u1ea7u 440km). Th\u00e1ng 7\/2017 v\u00e0 3\/2018, Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u00e0 Repsol (T\u00e2y Ban Nha) \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ea3i ng\u1eebng khoan d\u1ea7u kh\u00ed v\u00e0 ch\u1ecbu thua Trung Qu\u1ed1c do \u0111\u01a1n \u0111\u1ed9c v\u00e0 y\u1ebfu h\u01a1n (kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed3ng minh b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7). Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, C\u00e1 Voi Xanh (l\u00f4 118) c\u1ee7a ExxonMobil ch\u1ec9 c\u00e1ch \u0110\u00e0 N\u1eb5ng 88km, v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ee5ng v\u00e0o ExxonMobil l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ee5ng v\u00e0o H\u1ea3i Qu\u00e2n M\u1ef9.<\/p>\n

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Nh\u00e0 d\u00e0n DK1 – c\u1ed9t m\u1ed1c ch\u1ee7 quy\u1ec1n tr\u00ean v\u00f9ng bi\u1ec3n ph\u00eda nam, \u0111\u00f3ng ch\u1ed1t tr\u00ean c\u00e1c b\u00e3i c\u1ea1n Qu\u1ebf \u0110\u01b0\u1eddng, Ph\u00fac Nguy\u00ean, T\u01b0 Ch\u00ednh, Ph\u00fac T\u1ea7n, Ba K\u00e8.<\/p><\/div>\n

N\u1ebfu Trung Qu\u00f4c b\u1eaft n\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u00e0 T\u00e2y Ban Nha (t\u1ea1i l\u00f4 136\/03 v\u00e0 07\/03), th\u00ec h\u1ecd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u00e2y s\u1ee9c \u00e9p v\u1edbi \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 (t\u1ea1i l\u00f4 128) v\u00e0 M\u1ef9 (t\u1ea1i l\u00f4 118) \u0111\u1ec3 nh\u1ed5 ba c\u00e1i gai nh\u1ecdn c\u1eafm v\u00e0o \u201cl\u01b0\u1ee1i b\u00f2\u201d c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd. N\u1ebfu nh\u1ed5 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ba c\u00e1i gai \u0111\u00f3, h\u1ecd s\u1ebd ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c Tr\u01b0\u1eddng Sa v\u00e0 l\u00e0m ch\u1ee7 Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng. C\u0169ng nh\u01b0 Scarborough, b\u00e3i T\u01b0 Ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 \u201cl\u00e0n ranh \u0111\u1ecf\u201d (red line), c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a \u0111\u1ecba chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c. N\u1ebfu Vi\u1ec7t Nam (v\u00e0 M\u1ef9) \u0111\u1ec3 m\u1ea5t b\u00e3i T\u01b0 Ch\u00ednh v\u00e0o tay Trung Qu\u1ed1c nh\u01b0 Philippines (v\u00e0 M\u1ef9) \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ec3 m\u1ea5t Scarborough (n\u0103m 2012) th\u00ec \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ebd l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t sai l\u1ea7m chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1edbn.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n di\u1ec5n ra li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn l\u00f4 136\/03 (C\u00e1 Ki\u1ebfm n\u00e2u) th\u00e1ng 7\/2017, l\u00f4 118 (C\u00e1 Voi xanh) th\u00e1ng 11\/2017, v\u00e0 l\u00f4 07\/03 (C\u00e1 R\u1ed3ng \u0111\u1ecf) th\u00e1ng 3\/2018, \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m b\u1ed9c l\u1ed9 b\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5t v\u00e0 th\u00e1i \u0111\u1ed9 ngang ng\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c. H\u1ecd d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean s\u1ef1 \u00e1p \u0111\u1eb7t \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng l\u01b0\u1ee1i b\u00f2 b\u1ea5t h\u1ee3p ph\u00e1p t\u1ea1i bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ec3 ng\u0103n c\u1ea3n t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf n\u00e0o mu\u1ed1n h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c d\u1ea7u kh\u00ed v\u1edbi Vi\u1ec7t Nam. \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n v\u1edbi \u201cTam ch\u1ee7ng Chi\u1ebfn ph\u00e1p\u201d (Three War Doctrine) c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c.<\/p>\n

Nh\u01b0ng li\u1ec7u M\u1ef9 d\u01b0\u1edbi th\u1eddi \u00f4ng Trump c\u00f3 b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 Vi\u1ec7t Nam kh\u00f4ng, khi hai b\u00ean ch\u01b0a ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3ng minh v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c? Theo chuy\u00ean gia Bonnie Glaser (CSIS) \u201cc\u00f3 r\u1ea5t \u00edt kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng M\u1ef9 s\u1ebd can thi\u1ec7p qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ec3 b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 Vi\u1ec7t Nam ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i Trung Qu\u1ed1c, v\u00ec Vi\u1ec7t Nam kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3ng minh c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9\u201d. (What would the U.S. have done differently? I find it unlikely that the U.S. would militarily defend Vietnam against China. Vietnam isn\u2019t an ally).<\/p>\n

N\u1ebfu M\u1ef9 kh\u00f4ng can thi\u1ec7p v\u00e0o tranh ch\u1ea5p t\u1ea1i Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 \u0111\u1ed3ng minh hay \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c (nh\u01b0 Philippines hay Vi\u1ec7t Nam), th\u00ec \u0111\u00fang \u00fd Trung Qu\u1ed1c, v\u00ec h\u1ecd ch\u1ec9 mu\u1ed1n lo\u1ea1i M\u1ef9 ra kh\u1ecfi Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng. N\u1ebfu ASEAN c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng can thi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 khoanh tay \u0111\u1ee9ng nh\u00ecn khi Vi\u1ec7t Nam b\u1ecb b\u1eaft n\u1ea1t v\u00e0 \u0111e d\u1ecda th\u00ec c\u0169ng \u0111\u00fang \u00fd Trung qu\u1ed1c. H\u1ecd ch\u1ec9 mu\u1ed1n ph\u00e2n h\u00f3a l\u00e0m suy y\u1ebfu ASEAN b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch t\u00e1ch b\u00f3 \u0111\u0169a ra \u0111\u1ec3 b\u1ebb t\u1eebng chi\u1ebfc, n\u00ean kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n \u0111a ph\u01b0\u01a1ng.<\/p>\n

Alexander Vuving \u0111\u00e3 nh\u1eadn x\u00e9t r\u1eb1ng quan h\u1ec7 Trung-Vi\u1ec7t nay t\u00e1ch xa h\u01a1n \u201cnh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng qu\u00e1 xa\u201d, c\u00f2n quan h\u1ec7 M\u1ef9-Vi\u1ec7t nay g\u1ea7n h\u01a1n \u201cnh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng qu\u00e1 g\u1ea7n\u201d. Tuy nhi\u00ean, sau khi t\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Obama \u0111\u1ebfn th\u0103m Vi\u1ec7t Nam (5\/2016), b\u1ecf c\u1ea5m v\u1eadn v\u0169 kh\u00ed, v\u00e0 th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng Nguy\u1ec5n Xu\u00e2n Ph\u00fac \u0111\u1ebfn th\u0103m M\u1ef9 (6\/2017), g\u1eb7p T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Donald Trump, th\u00ec quan h\u1ec7 M\u1ef9-Vi\u1ec7t h\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u201ctr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf\u201d (de facto). Th\u1ebf c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng t\u0129nh \u0111ang b\u1ecb ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1, bi\u1ebfn tam gi\u00e1c c\u00e2n \u201cM\u1ef9-Trung-Vi\u1ec7t\u201d tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh tam gi\u00e1c \u201cb\u1ea5t c\u00e2n x\u1ee9ng\u201d, \u0111\u1ea7y bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1.<\/p>\n

L\u00e0m sao gi\u1eef n\u01b0\u1edbc<\/strong><\/p>\n

V\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i (bottom line) l\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c mu\u1ed1n \u00e1p \u0111\u1eb7t \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u201cl\u01b0\u1ee1i b\u00f2\u201d \u0111\u1ec3 th\u00e2u t\u00f3m Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng nh\u01b0 c\u00e1i ao c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd. Trung Qu\u1ed1c kh\u00f4ng mu\u1ed1n Vi\u1ec7t Nam (hay Philippines) h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c khai th\u00e1c d\u1ea7u kh\u00ed t\u1ea1i Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng v\u1edbi b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c n\u00e0o kh\u00e1c (nh\u01b0 T\u00e2y Ban Nha, M\u1ef9, \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9, Nga) m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i Trung Qu\u1ed1c. H\u1ecd ch\u1ec9 mu\u1ed1n Vi\u1ec7t Nam c\u00f9ng Trung Qu\u1ed1c khai th\u00e1c chung theo c\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd m\u00e0 \u00f4ng Mahathir c\u00f3 l\u1ea7n ch\u1ec9 tr\u00edch l\u00e0 \u201cth\u1ef1c d\u00e2n ki\u1ec3u m\u1edbi\u201d.<\/p>\n

Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng m\u1ea5t tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 (disorder) nh\u01b0 hi\u1ec7n nay, n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0o c\u0169ng c\u1ea7n c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed3ng minh chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng b\u1ecb c\u00f4 \u0111\u1ed9c. Nh\u1eefng n\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u1ecf y\u1ebfu h\u01a1n l\u00e0 h\u00e0ng x\u00f3m c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t si\u00eau c\u01b0\u1eddng (nh\u01b0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c) c\u00e0ng c\u1ea7n c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed3ng minh chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ec3 l\u00e0m \u0111\u1ed1i tr\u1ecdng khi c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft (hedging strategy). Nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u1eebng n\u00ean \u1ea3o t\u01b0\u1edfng tr\u00f4ng ch\u1edd v\u00e0o c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c kh\u00e1c b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 m\u00ecnh, n\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng bi\u1ebft ph\u00e1t huy n\u1ed9i l\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ef1 c\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp. Mu\u1ed1n v\u1eady, ph\u1ea3i n\u00e2ng cao d\u00e2n tr\u00ed, \u0111\u1ed5i m\u1edbi th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf v\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh h\u1ec7 quy chi\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng b\u1ecb l\u1ea1c h\u1eadu v\u00e0 t\u1ee5t h\u1eadu.<\/p>\n

D\u01b0 lu\u1eadn cho r\u1eb1ng trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh hi\u1ec7n nay, Vi\u1ec7t Nam c\u1ea7n \u01b0u ti\u00ean \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u1ec3 n\u00e2ng n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a C\u1ea3nh s\u00e1t Bi\u1ec3n (n\u00f3i ri\u00eang) v\u00e0 H\u1ea3i qu\u00e2n (n\u00f3i chung). \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 tuy \u0111\u00fang nh\u01b0ng c\u00f3 l\u1ebd ch\u01b0a \u0111\u1ee7, v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 \u201cqu\u00e1 \u00edt v\u00e0 qu\u00e1 mu\u1ed9n\u201d (too little too late). Tuy ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0m m\u1ecdi c\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ec3 n\u00e2ng cao n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c CSB, nh\u01b0ng n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c chi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea5u kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh c\u1ee9ng (nh\u01b0 kh\u00ed t\u00e0i v\u00e0 h\u1ecfa l\u1ef1c) m\u00e0 c\u00f2n ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh m\u1ec1m (nh\u01b0 d\u00e2n tr\u00ed v\u00e0 d\u00e2n kh\u00ed).<\/p>\n

Ng\u00e0y tr\u01b0\u1edbc, khi th\u1ef1c d\u00e2n Ph\u00e1p \u0111em chi\u1ebfn h\u1ea1m \u0111\u1ebfn c\u1eeda bi\u1ec3n Thu\u1eadn An \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1ecda n\u1ea1t, tri\u1ec1u \u0111\u00ecnh ch\u1ec9 mu\u1ed1n y\u00ean l\u1eb7ng \u0111\u1ec3 \u201cgi\u1eef h\u00f2a kh\u00ed\u201d, trong khi ng\u01b0\u1eddi Vi\u1ec7t ch\u1ec9 ham u\u1ed1ng r\u01b0\u1ee3u v\u00e0 ng\u00e2m th\u01a1. D\u00e2n tr\u00ed nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, l\u00e0m sao kh\u00f4ng m\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc? Ng\u00e0y nay, khi Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111em chi\u1ebfn h\u1ea1m \u0111\u1ebfn b\u00e3i T\u01b0 Ch\u00ednh \u0111\u1ec3 b\u1eaft n\u1ea1t, Vi\u1ec7t Nam c\u0169ng mu\u1ed1n y\u00ean l\u1eb7ng \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1eef h\u00f2a kh\u00ed v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea1i c\u1ee5c, trong khi tranh c\u00e3i s\u00f4i n\u1ed5i n\u00ean l\u00e0m \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1eaft cao t\u1ed1c 200km\/h hay 350km\/h, n\u00ean cho \u201cm\u1edf lon Vi\u00eat Nam\u201d v\u00e0 \u201cd\u00f9ng lu\u201d \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ee5t hay kh\u00f4ng. D\u00e2n tr\u00ed nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, l\u00e0m sao gi\u1eef \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u01b0\u1edbc?<\/p>\n

Trong khi hy v\u1ecdng tranh ch\u1ea5p t\u1ea1i b\u00e3i T\u01b0 ch\u00ednh c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u00e0n x\u1ebfp \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c (tr\u01b0\u1edbc m\u1eaft), Vi\u1ec7t Nam c\u1ea7n chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb cho m\u1ecdi t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng (l\u00e2u d\u00e0i). Trong chuy\u1ebfn th\u0103m M\u1ef9 s\u1eafp t\u1edbi c\u1ee7a T\u1ed5ng B\u00ed th\u01b0\/Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch n\u01b0\u1edbc Nguy\u1ec5n Ph\u00fa Tr\u1ecdng (n\u1ebfu s\u1ee9c kh\u1ecfe cho ph\u00e9p), vi\u1ec7c k\u00fd k\u1ebft hay b\u00e0n b\u1ea1c v\u1ec1 m\u1ed9t th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c (nh\u01b0 v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng minh\/\u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c kh\u00e1c) l\u00e0 thi\u1ebft y\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ee7 s\u1ee9c r\u0103n \u0111e \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c tham v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi \u201cchi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng kinh t\u1ebf bi\u1ec3n\u201d (theo Ngh\u1ecb quy\u1ebft 36-NQ\/TW).<\/p>\n

Nguy\u1ec5n Quang Dy<\/p>\n

T\u00e0i li\u1ec7u tham kh\u1ea3o<\/p>\n

\u201cChina and Vietnam in standoff over Chinese survey ship mission to disputed reef in South China Sea\u201d, <\/em>Liu Zhen, South China Morning Post, July 12, 2019<\/p>\n

\u201cChina, Vietnam: Reports Suggest Maritime Standoff Near Spratly Islands\u201d, <\/em>Stratfor, situation report, July 12, 2019<\/p>\n

\u201cTensions Bubble to the Surface in China-Vietnam Spat\u201d, <\/em>Murray Hiebert & Gregory Poling, CSIS AMTI update, June 28, 2017<\/p>\n

\u201cKh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng l\u1ea7n th\u1ee9 hai\u201d, <\/em>Nguy\u1ec5n Quang Dy, Viet-studies, July 31, 2017<\/p>\n

 \n

Aufrufe: 270<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

14-7-2019. B\u00e0i c\u1ee7a Nguy\u1ec5n Quang Dy chuy\u00ean gia nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf, nh\u00e0 b\u00e1o t\u1ef1 do \u00a0\u201cMu\u1ed1n h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh ph\u1ea3i chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb chi\u1ebfn tranh\u201d (Si vis pacem, para bellum). Nh\u1eefng g\u00ec \u0111ang di\u1ec5n ra t\u1ea1i b\u00e3i T\u01b0 Ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 d\u01b0 ch\u1ea5n nh\u01b0 s\u00f3ng ng\u1ea7m ti\u1ebfp theo kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng l\u1ea7n tr\u01b0\u1edbc (7\/2017 v\u00e0 3\/2018). V\u00ec v\u1eady, …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[97,1,37,38],"tags":[103],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/east-sea.de\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4753"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/east-sea.de\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/east-sea.de\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/east-sea.de\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/east-sea.de\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4753"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/east-sea.de\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4753\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4757,"href":"https:\/\/east-sea.de\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4753\/revisions\/4757"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/east-sea.de\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4753"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/east-sea.de\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4753"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/east-sea.de\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4753"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}