{"id":9341,"date":"2021-11-29T13:56:34","date_gmt":"2021-11-29T12:56:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/east-sea.de\/?p=9341"},"modified":"2021-12-18T19:31:23","modified_gmt":"2021-12-18T18:31:23","slug":"tieng-viet-dai-loan-cuc-xuong-kho-nuot-doi-voi-bac-kinh","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/east-sea.de\/vi\/2021\/11\/29\/tieng-viet-dai-loan-cuc-xuong-kho-nuot-doi-voi-bac-kinh\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0110\u00e0i Loan: C\u1ee5c x\u01b0\u01a1ng kh\u00f3 nu\u1ed1t \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi B\u1eafc Kinh?"},"content":{"rendered":"\u201cK\u1ebb nh\u00e2n nh\u01b0\u1ee3ng cho c\u00e1 s\u1ea5u \u0103n v\u1edbi hy v\u1ecdng n\u00f3 s\u1ebd \u0103n th\u1ecbt m\u00ecnh cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng\u201d (an appeaser is someone who feeds a crocodile hoping it will eat him last \u2013 Churchill).<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

G\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 \u0111\u00e1nh chi\u1ebfm \u0110\u00e0i Loan kh\u00f4ng v\u00e0 n\u1ebfu c\u00f3 th\u00ec bao gi\u1edd \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m gi\u1edbi nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u \u0111au \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0 d\u01b0 lu\u1eadn lo ng\u1ea1i, nh\u01b0ng v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a c\u00f3 l\u1eddi gi\u1ea3i th\u1ecfa \u0111\u00e1ng, c\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng. Trong th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u201ch\u1eadu chi\u1ebfn tranh l\u1ea1nh\u201d (M\u1ef9 \u2013 X\u00f4) hay \u201cchi\u1ebfn tranh l\u1ea1nh ki\u1ec3u m\u1edbi\u201d (M\u1ef9 \u2013 Trung), y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u201cb\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh\u201d v\u00e0 \u201ckh\u00f3 l\u01b0\u1eddng\u201d ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng t\u0103ng, l\u00e0m cho \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1eddi Trump v\u00e0 th\u1eddi Biden v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a ho\u00e0n ch\u1ec9nh.<\/strong><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Trung Qu\u1ed1c mu\u1ed1n g\u00ec?<\/strong><\/p>\n

C\u1ed1 t\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Nixon tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi m\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e3 v\u00ed Trung Qu\u1ed1c nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t \u201cFrankenstein\u201d. Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd v\u00e0 quy\u1ebft \u0111o\u00e1n kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 v\u00ec \u00fd ch\u00ed c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh h\u1ecd, m\u00e0 c\u00f2n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3ng minh khuy\u1ebfn kh\u00edch v\u00e0 nh\u00e2n nh\u01b0\u1ee3ng. Qua m\u1ea5y \u0111\u1eddi t\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng M\u1ef9, h\u1ecd \u0111\u00e3 ng\u1ed9 nh\u1eadn v\u1ec1 Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 theo \u0111u\u1ed5i ch\u1ee7 tr\u01b0\u01a1ng \u201ccan d\u1ef1\u201d (engagement). Trong khi Obama \u201ctr\u00e1nh r\u1ee7i ro\u201d (risk aversion) th\u00ec Biden \u201cm\u1eadp m\u1edd chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c\u201d (strategic ambiguity).<\/p>\n

Hai n\u0103m qua, M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 sa v\u00e0o kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng y t\u1ebf do \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch Covid-19 l\u00e0m h\u01a1n s\u00e1u m\u01b0\u01a1i v\u1ea1n ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u1ebft, v\u00e0 kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb m\u00e0 \u0111\u1ec9nh \u0111i\u1ec3m l\u00e0 v\u1ee5 chi\u1ebfm nh\u00e0 Qu\u1ed1c H\u1ed9i (6\/1\/2021). T\u1eadp C\u1eadn B\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e3 tranh th\u1ee7 th\u1eddi c\u01a1 c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c, m\u00e0 \u0111\u1ec9nh \u0111i\u1ec3m l\u00e0 \u201cngh\u1ecb quy\u1ebft l\u1ecbch s\u1eed\u201d \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c H\u1ed9i ngh\u1ecb Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng 6 th\u00f4ng qua, kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a T\u1eadp nh\u01b0 \u201cHo\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ebf Trung Hoa\u201d, m\u00e0 c\u00f2n t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng \u00e1p l\u1ef1c \u1edf Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng v\u00e0 eo bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00e0i Loan \u0111\u1ec3 n\u1eafn g\u00e2n M\u1ef9.<\/p>\n

T\u1ea1i H\u1ed9i ngh\u1ecb Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng 6 (kh\u00f3a 19), v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 c\u1ee7a Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch Nh\u00e2n \u0111\u1ea1i (Qu\u1ed1c h\u1ed9i) L\u1eadt Chi\u1ebfn Th\u01b0, T\u1eadp C\u1eadn B\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e3 \u00e1p \u0111\u1ea3o \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ti\u1ebfng n\u00f3i ph\u1ea3n kh\u00e1ng v\u00e0 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh. Nh\u01b0ng theo nh\u00e0 b\u00ecnh lu\u1eadn ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb Ng\u1ee5y Kinh Sinh (24\/11\/2021), th\u00ec \u0111\u00f3 ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 tuy\u00ean truy\u1ec1n b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i, c\u00f2n b\u00ean trong tranh lu\u1eadn r\u1ea5t gay g\u1eaft. V\u1ee5 500 \u00fd ki\u1ebfn ph\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea9y \u0111\u1ea5u tranh quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c b\u00ean trong \u201cc\u00e1i h\u1ed9p \u0111en\u201d Trung Qu\u1ed1c l\u00ean cao tr\u00e0o m\u1edbi. N\u00f3i c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c, T\u1eadp C\u1eadn B\u00ecnh mu\u1ed1n n\u00e2ng m\u1ed9t t\u1ea3ng \u0111\u00e1 nh\u01b0ng t\u1ea3ng \u0111\u00e1 \u0111\u00f3 l\u1ea1i \u0111\u1eadp v\u00e0o ch\u00e2n \u00f4ng ta, n\u00ean ti\u1ebfn tho\u00e1i l\u01b0\u1ee1ng nan.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia cho r\u1eb1ng<\/a> T\u1eadp C\u1eadn B\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e3 chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb h\u1eadu tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh \u201cHo\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ebf Trung Hoa\u201d m\u1ed9t kh\u00f3a n\u1eefa (v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2022), n\u00ean \u00f4ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 mu\u1ed1n chinh ph\u1ee5c \u0110\u00e0i Loan l\u00e0m vi\u00ean ng\u1ecdc cho \u201cv\u01b0\u01a1ng mi\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh\u201d. N\u1ebfu chi\u1ebfn tranh l\u1ea1nh ki\u1ec3u m\u1edbi k\u00e8m theo \u201cchi\u1ebfn tranh n\u00f3ng\u201d th\u00ec \u0110\u00e0i Loan l\u00e0 n\u01a1i d\u1ec5 x\u1ea3y ra nh\u1ea5t. Tuy xung \u0111\u1ed9t l\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro, nh\u01b0ng T\u1eadp C\u1eadn B\u00ecnh cho r\u1eb1ng l\u00fac n\u00e0y l\u00e0 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t, h\u01a1n l\u00e0 ch\u1edd m\u01b0\u1eddi n\u0103m n\u1eefa.<\/p>\n

Trong m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed1n s\u00e1ch m\u1edbi xu\u1ea5t b\u1ea3n<\/a>, David Shambaugh (George Washington University) \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 l\u1ea1i n\u0103m l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o \u0111\u00e3 d\u1eabn d\u1eaft Trung Qu\u1ed1c t\u1eeb 1949 \u0111\u1ebfn nay. \u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 Mao Tr\u1ea1ch \u0110\u00f4ng (1949-1976), \u0110\u1eb7ng Ti\u1ec3u B\u00ecnh (1979-1989), Giang Tr\u1ea1ch D\u00e2n (1989-2002), H\u1ed3 C\u1ea9m \u0110\u00e0o (2002-2012), v\u00e0 T\u1eadp C\u1eadn B\u00ecnh (2012-\u0111\u1ebfn nay). Tuy ch\u1eb7ng \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1eabn T\u1eadp C\u1eadn B\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ebfn kh\u00f3a th\u1ee9 3 c\u00f3 v\u1ebb r\u1ed9ng m\u1edf, nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u1eb1ng sau h\u1eadu tr\u01b0\u1eddng, nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ed1i suy ngh\u0129 kh\u00e1c.<\/p>\n

Ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a T\u1eadp C\u1eadn B\u00ecnh \u0111ang g\u00e2y tranh c\u00e3i. Khi \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ed9i 20 c\u00e0ng g\u1ea7n, th\u00ec c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng cao. T\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m \u0111\u1ebfn nay, l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o \u0110\u1ea3ng \u0111\u00e3 thanh tr\u1eebng l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ea3nh s\u00e1t, an ninh, vi\u1ec7n ki\u1ec3m s\u00e1t, v\u00e0 tr\u1ea5n \u00e1p nh\u1eefng nh\u00e0 t\u01b0 b\u1ea3n l\u1edbn (nh\u01b0 Jack Ma). Nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi coi \u201cngh\u1ecb quy\u1ebft l\u1ecbch s\u1eed\u201d m\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00f4ng qua l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t b\u01b0\u1edbc c\u1ed1t y\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0a T\u1eadp C\u1eadn B\u00ecnh v\u00e0o \u201cng\u00f4i \u0111\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ea3ng\u201d. Trong khi ng\u01b0\u1eddi Trung Qu\u1ed1c lo l\u1eafng v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c T\u1eadp C\u1eadn B\u00ecnh t\u1eadp trung qu\u00e1 nhi\u1ec1u quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c, th\u00ec c\u00e1c l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o tr\u1ebb h\u01a1n th\u1ea5t v\u1ecdng v\u00ec thi\u1ebfu chuy\u1ec3n giao quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c.<\/p>\n

M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3ng minh mu\u1ed1n g\u00ec?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Theo Elbridge Colby<\/a> (nguy\u00ean ph\u00f3 tr\u1ee3 l\u00fd b\u1ed9 tr\u01b0\u1edfng qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng d\u01b0\u1edbi th\u1eddi Trump), Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e3 d\u00e0nh 25 n\u0103m qua \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i nh\u1eb1m \u0111\u00e1nh chi\u1ebfm \u0110\u00e0i Loan, n\u00ean h\u1ecd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2025. \u0110\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh xung \u0111\u1ed9t, M\u1ef9 ph\u1ea3i h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng nhanh h\u01a1n v\u00e0 \u01b0u ti\u00ean gi\u00fap \u0110\u00e0i Loan t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng \u0111\u1ec3 r\u0103n \u0111e B\u1eafc Kinh. M\u1ef9 c\u1ea7n thay th\u1ebf ch\u1ee7 tr\u01b0\u01a1ng \u201cm\u1eadp m\u1edd chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c\u201d b\u1eb1ng cam k\u1ebft m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n v\u1edbi \u0110\u00e0i Loan.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u00f4 \u0111\u1ed1c Philip Davidson (nguy\u00ean t\u01b0 l\u1ec7nh v\u00f9ng Indo-Pacific) cho r\u1eb1ng Trung Qu\u1ed1c ch\u01b0a s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng chi\u1ebfm \u0110\u00e0i Loan tr\u01b0\u1edbc n\u0103m 2027, v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng n\u00e0o cho th\u1ea5y h\u1ecd \u0111\u1ecbnh \u201c\u0111\u00e1nh \u00fap\u201d. Trung Qu\u1ed1c hy v\u1ecdng g\u00e2y \u00e1p l\u1ef1c ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng m\u1ea1nh v\u1ec1 ngo\u1ea1i giao, kinh t\u1ebf, v\u00e0 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 v\u1edbi \u0110\u00e0i Loan s\u1ebd gi\u00fap Qu\u1ed1c D\u00e2n \u0110\u1ea3ng (th\u00e2n B\u1eafc Kinh) gi\u00e0nh th\u1eafng l\u1ee3i trong b\u1ea7u c\u1eed t\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2024. Nh\u01b0ng, n\u1ebfu ph\u00f3 t\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng L\u1ea1i Thanh \u0110\u1ee9c (\u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 \u0110\u00e0i Loan \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp) th\u1eafng<\/a> th\u00ec Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i ch\u1ecdn gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1.<\/p>\n

Sau cu\u1ed9c g\u1eb7p M\u1ef9-Trung \u0111\u1ea7y k\u1ecbch t\u00ednh \u1edf Anchorage (19\/3), hai b\u00ean \u0111\u1ec1u mu\u1ed1n gi\u1ea3m nhi\u1ec7t b\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c g\u1eb7p c\u1ea5p cao. Ti\u1ebfp theo \u0111i\u1ec7n \u0111\u00e0m gi\u1eefa Biden v\u00e0 T\u1eadp (9\/9), Jake Sullivan (c\u1ed1 v\u1ea5n an ninh qu\u1ed1c gia) g\u1eb7p D\u01b0\u01a1ng Khi\u1ebft Tr\u00ec (ph\u1ee5 tr\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ed1i ngo\u1ea1i) t\u1ea1i Th\u1ee5y S\u1ef9 (26\/10) \u0111\u1ec3 thu x\u1ebfp cu\u1ed9c g\u1eb7p c\u1ea5p cao (15\/11). H\u1ed9i \u0111\u00e0m k\u00e9o d\u00e0i ba ti\u1ebfng r\u01b0\u1ee1i, tuy trao \u0111\u1ed5i nhi\u1ec1u ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec1 kh\u00e1c nh\u01b0 th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i v\u00e0 nh\u00e2n quy\u1ec1n, nh\u01b0ng \u0110\u00e0i Loan v\u1eabn l\u00e0 ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec1 n\u00f3ng nh\u1ea5t.<\/p>\n

Tuy tr\u01b0\u1edbc m\u1eaft (b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i) hai b\u00ean c\u00f3 v\u1ebb h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t v\u00ec Biden v\u00e0 T\u1eadp l\u00e0 \u201cb\u1ea1n c\u0169\u201d, nh\u01b0ng v\u1ec1 l\u00e2u d\u00e0i (b\u00ean trong) m\u00e2u thu\u1eabn v\u1eabn c\u00f2n nguy\u00ean. Trong khi Biden nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh s\u1ef1 c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft ph\u1ea3i thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp \u201cm\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng\u201d \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh hi\u1ec3u l\u1ea7m d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn xung \u0111\u1ed9t ngo\u00e0i \u00fd mu\u1ed1n, T\u1eadp C\u1eadn B\u00ecnh kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t th\u1ecfa hi\u1ec7p \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 n\u00e0o<\/a>.<\/p>\n

G\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, quan \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u1ec1 Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u1ee7a \u00dac \u0111\u00e3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i nhi\u1ec1u v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n h\u00f3a s\u00e2u s\u1eafc. Theo Peter Jennings<\/a> (ASPI Executive Director), \u201cb\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 \u0110\u00e0i Loan l\u00e0 s\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi an ninh c\u1ee7a \u00dac\u201d, v\u00e0 \u201cc\u00f2n qu\u00e1 s\u1edbm \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u1ecbu \u0111\u1ea7u h\u00e0ng Trung Qu\u1ed1c\u201d. Nh\u01b0ng Huge White (Lowy Institute) l\u1ea1i cho r\u1eb1ng ph\u1ea3i tr\u00e1nh chi\u1ebfn tranh v\u00ec c\u00e1i gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a chi\u1ebfn tranh cao h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi ph\u1ea3i s\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 khu v\u1ef1c do Trung Qu\u1ed1c d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u. \u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t quan \u0111i\u1ec3m tr\u00e1i chi\u1ec1u.<\/p>\n

Paul Keating<\/a> (c\u1ef1u th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng \u00dac) c\u0169ng cho r\u1eb1ng l\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a \u00dac kh\u00f4ng n\u00ean gi\u00fap \u0110\u00e0i Loan v\u00ec \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 \u201cv\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 n\u1ed9i b\u1ed9\u201d c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c. Keating kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 ng\u1ed9 nh\u1eadn v\u1ec1 \u201cnh\u00e2n nh\u01b0\u1ee3ng\u201d, m\u00e0 c\u00f2n bi quan v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 thay th\u1ebf. Nh\u00e2n nh\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t nh\u1eb1m tr\u00e1nh xung \u0111\u1ed9t, tuy trong tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p \u0110\u00e0i Loan kh\u00f4ng d\u1ec5 x\u1ea3y ra.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u00e0i Loan v\u00e0 Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng<\/strong><\/p>\n

Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh \u0111\u00f3, \u0110\u00e0i Loan v\u00e0 Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u1eabn lo ng\u1ea1i \u201cl\u1ecbch s\u1eed s\u1ebd l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i\u201d n\u1ebfu M\u1ef9-Trung th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn ri\u00eang sau l\u01b0ng h\u1ecd. \u0110\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 l\u00fd do Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a v\u1ed9i n\u00e2ng c\u1ea5p quan h\u1ec7 v\u1edbi M\u1ef9 l\u00ean \u201c\u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c\u201d, nh\u01b0ng l\u00e0 l\u00fd do \u0111\u1ec3 Nh\u1eadt v\u00e0 Vi\u1ec7t Nam n\u00e2ng quan h\u1ec7 \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u00e2u r\u1ed9ng l\u00ean m\u1ed9t \u201cc\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ed9 m\u1edbi\u201d. \u00a0T\u1ea1i cu\u1ed9c g\u1eb7p c\u1ea5p cao \u1edf Tokyo (23\/11) gi\u1eefa th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng Nh\u1eadt Fumio Kishida v\u00e0 th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng Vi\u1ec7t Nam Pham Minh Ch\u00ednh, hai b\u00ean \u0111\u00e3 ra tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 chung \u201cc\u1ef1c l\u1ef1c ph\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed1i nh\u1eefng \u00fd \u0111\u1ed3 \u0111\u01a1n ph\u01b0\u01a1ng thay \u0111\u1ed5i nguy\u00ean tr\u1ea1ng t\u1ea1i khu v\u1ef1c\u201d.<\/p>\n

Theo m\u1ed9t b\u00e1o c\u00e1o c\u1ee7a CNAS<\/a> (26\/10), Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 chi\u1ebfm \u0111\u1ea3o Ba B\u00ecnh (Taiping hay Pratas) t\u1ea1i Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng v\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn n\u00f3 th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ed3n. M\u1ef9 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 c\u1ea7n b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 \u0110\u00e0i Loan, m\u00e0 c\u00f2n ph\u1ea3i ng\u0103n xung \u0111\u1ed9t leo thang ra ngo\u00e0i Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch cho r\u1eb1ng M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u01a1i tr\u00f2 \u201cch\u1ecdi g\u00e0\u201d (chicken game) v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ea1i Ba B\u00ecnh, nh\u01b0ng thi\u1ebfu Nh\u1eadt h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 th\u00ec M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 \u0110\u00e0i Loan y\u1ebfu th\u1ebf, l\u00e0m L\u1ea7u N\u0103m G\u00f3c kh\u00f3 x\u1eed.<\/p>\n

Trong cu\u1ed1n s\u00e1ch \u201cHindsight, Insight, Foresight: Thinking about Security in the Indo-Pacific<\/em> (do Alexander Vuving ch\u1ee7 bi\u00ean v\u00e0 APCSS xu\u1ea5t b\u1ea3n (9\/2020), Vuving l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng tuy c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u1eb7p nguy hi\u1ec3m, nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f3 r\u01a1i v\u00e0o \u201cb\u1eaby Thucydides\u201d nh\u01b0 gi\u00e1o s\u01b0 Graham Allison c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o, v\u00ec Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng theo lu\u1eadt ch\u01a1i \u201cch\u1ecdi g\u00e0\u201d (chicken game) ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng theo lu\u1eadt ch\u01a1i \u201cth\u1ebf l\u01b0\u1ee1ng nan c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi t\u00f9\u201d (prisoner\u2019s dilemma). N\u00f3i c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c, n\u1ebfu \u0110\u00e0i Loan c\u0169ng theo lu\u1eadt ch\u01a1i \u201cch\u1ecdi g\u00e0\u201d nh\u01b0 \u1edf Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng th\u00ec c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u201cb\u1eaby Thucydides\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u00e2y kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111e d\u1ecda \u0110\u00e0i Loan. Trong cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng eo bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00e0i Loan l\u1ea7n tr\u01b0\u1edbc (1995-1996), M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 tri\u1ec3n khai hai nh\u00f3m t\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn t\u00e0u s\u00e2n bay t\u1edbi khu v\u1ef1c, bu\u1ed9c Trung Qu\u1ed1c ph\u1ea3i xu\u1ed1ng thang. T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Th\u00e1i Anh V\u0103n \u0111\u00e3 tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1<\/a>, \u201c\u0110\u00e0i Loan \u0111\u1ee9ng tr\u00ean tuy\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c tranh ch\u1ea5p to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u gi\u1eefa n\u1ec1n d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 v\u00e0 n\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ed9c t\u00e0i. N\u1ebfu \u0110\u00e0i Loan th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i, th\u00ec \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ebd l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t th\u1ea3m h\u1ecda cho h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh v\u00e0 d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7.<\/p>\n

Kurt Campbell<\/a> (Asia-Pacific Coordinator) ph\u00e1t bi\u1ec3u t\u1ea1i Institute of Peace (19\/11) \u0111\u00e3 nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh, \u201c\u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c ch\u1ee7 ch\u1ed1t\u201d (a key fulcrum player) tr\u00ean tr\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf v\u00e0 \u201cVi\u1ec7t Nam l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia thi\u1ebft y\u1ebfu\u201d (a critical swing state) t\u1ea1i Indo-Pacific. \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 v\u00e0 Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111\u1ee9ng \u0111\u1ea7u danh s\u00e1ch c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc thi\u1ebft y\u1ebfu s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai Ch\u00e2u \u00c1\u201d. L\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Vi\u1ec7t Nam c\u1ea7n l\u00e0m quen, v\u00e0 chia s\u1ebb t\u1ea7m nh\u00ecn chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1\u201d.<\/p>\n

Theo Derek Grossman<\/a> (RAND\u2019s senior defense analyst), trong khi ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n Joe Biden c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111\u00e0 t\u00edch c\u1ef1c trong quan h\u1ec7 song ph\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u1edbi Vi\u1ec7t Nam, th\u00ec v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a r\u00f5 H\u00e0 N\u1ed9i mu\u1ed1n \u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 t\u1eeb Washington \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u00fap h\u1ecd \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u00f3 v\u1edbi B\u1eafc Kinh m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3. Trong khi c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng gi\u1eefa hai si\u00eau c\u01b0\u1eddng, Vi\u1ec7t Nam tuy mu\u1ed1n t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng quan h\u1ec7 an ninh qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng nh\u01b0ng c\u00f2n ng\u1ea1i \u201c\u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c\u201d v\u1edbi M\u1ef9.<\/p>\n

Thay l\u1eddi k\u1ebft<\/strong><\/p>\n

T\u00f3m l\u1ea1i, Trung Qu\u1ed1c kh\u00f4ng bao gi\u1edd t\u1eeb b\u1ecf \u00fd \u0111\u1ed3 th\u00e2u t\u00f3m \u0110\u00e0i Loan v\u00ec \u201cl\u1ee3i \u00edch c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i\u201d, k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng Kim M\u00f4n, M\u00e3 T\u1ed5 (1958) \u0111\u1ebfn kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng eo bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00e0i Loan (1995-1996). Trong khi Trung Qu\u1ed1c tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t si\u00eau c\u01b0\u1eddng, th\u00ec \u0110\u00e0i Loan c\u0169ng \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c b\u1eadc trung hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i. \u0110\u00e0i Loan l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u1ee5c x\u01b0\u01a1ng kh\u00f3 nu\u1ed1t h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi Hong Kong, kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 v\u00ec n\u00f3 c\u00f3 ti\u1ec1m l\u1ef1c kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3, m\u00e0 c\u00f2n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c M\u1ef9, Nh\u1eadt v\u00e0 c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ed3ng minh kh\u00e1c b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7, v\u00ec nh\u1eefng l\u1ee3i \u00edch s\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n trong khu v\u1ef1c.<\/p>\n

N\u1ebfu M\u1ef9 quy\u1ebft t\u00e2m b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 \u0110\u00e0i Loan th\u00ec ph\u1ea3i t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng \u201cr\u0103n \u0111e k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p\u201d (integrated deterrence), v\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ch\u1ee7 tr\u01b0\u01a1ng \u201cm\u1eadp m\u1edd chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c\u201d \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u00fap \u0110\u00e0i Loan \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u00f3 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 h\u01a1n v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c. \u201cM\u1eadp m\u1edd chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c\u201d kh\u00f4ng \u0111em l\u1ea1i \u201c\u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c\u201d, m\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 duy tr\u00ec \u201ckho\u1ea3ng l\u1eb7ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc m\u1ed9t c\u01a1n b\u00e3o\u201d. Washington \u0111\u00e3 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u01b0\u1edbi th\u1eddi Trump, v\u00e0 nay ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u01b0\u1edbi th\u1eddi Biden. Nh\u01b0ng qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a Washington \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u00f3 v\u1edbi B\u1eafc Kinh \u0111\u1ebfn nay v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a ho\u00e0n ch\u1ec9nh.<\/p>\n

nghiencuuquocte.org\n

Aufrufe: 513<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201cK\u1ebb nh\u00e2n nh\u01b0\u1ee3ng cho c\u00e1 s\u1ea5u \u0103n v\u1edbi hy v\u1ecdng n\u00f3 s\u1ebd \u0103n th\u1ecbt m\u00ecnh cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng\u201d (an appeaser is someone who feeds a crocodile hoping it will eat him last \u2013 Churchill). G\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 \u0111\u00e1nh chi\u1ebfm \u0110\u00e0i Loan kh\u00f4ng v\u00e0 n\u1ebfu c\u00f3 th\u00ec bao gi\u1edd \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m gi\u1edbi nghi\u00ean …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[97,1,37,38],"tags":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/east-sea.de\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9341"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/east-sea.de\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/east-sea.de\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/east-sea.de\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/east-sea.de\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9341"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/east-sea.de\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9341\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9343,"href":"https:\/\/east-sea.de\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9341\/revisions\/9343"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/east-sea.de\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9341"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/east-sea.de\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9341"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/east-sea.de\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9341"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}