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The South China Sea dispute is one of the most complex and tense geopolitical issues in Southeast Asia

The South China Sea dispute is one of the most complex and tense geopolitical issues in Southeast Asia, primarily involving China and several other countries such as Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan.

Background The South China Sea holds significant economic and military importance, lying along a crucial international shipping route through which an estimated 30% of global trade passes. It is also believed to be rich in natural resources, particularly oil, gas, and fisheries. China claims almost the entire South China Sea through the so-called “nine-dash line,” which encompasses about 80% of the area. However, these claims are not recognized internationally and were ruled invalid by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague in 2016, in a case brought by the Philippines. The court found that China’s claims have no legal basis under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) of 1982. Recent Tensions In recent years, China has ramped up its military activities and constructed artificial islands in the disputed Spratly and Paracel Islands, areas where countries like Vietnam also assert strong sovereignty claims. China has built military bases, airstrips, and infrastructure on these man-made islands, bolstering its ability to control the region. These actions have led to multiple incidents of tension. For example, in August 2023, China sent its survey ship “Haiyang Dizhi 8” and several coast guard vessels into Vietnam’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), prompting protests from Vietnam. Similarly, the Philippines has repeatedly condemned China for confrontations in the Scarborough Shoal and the Spratly Islands. The United States, along with other Western nations such as Japan and Australia, has also become involved in the South China Sea issue by conducting Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to challenge China’s expansive territorial claims. This has turned the region into a global strategic hotspot where the interests of major powers intersect. Solutions and Challenges Despite diplomatic efforts to ease tensions, such as ongoing negotiations between ASEAN and China over a Code of Conduct (COC) for the South China Sea, progress has been slow. The countries in the region continue to face military escalation and coercive behavior from China. Resolving the South China Sea dispute requires a peaceful solution based on international law and cooperation among all parties. However, with China’s recent aggressive moves, the prospect of a long-term resolution remains uncertain.

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